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在大国博弈与科技竞争日益激烈的背景下，如何应对以实体清单为代表的技术封锁和增强中国企业韧性是值得关注的重要议题。文章结合美国商务部实体清单名单和CSMAR关联交易数据库识别了2018—2023年间被列入实体清单的沪深A股上市企业，首次在实体清单政策下采用季度数据，实证检验了供应链多元化、市场多元化和技术多元化三种多元化战略能否帮助中国企业应对实体清单冲击。结果显示，实体清单政策具有显著的负面效应，破坏了企业的正常经营，而多元化战略有助于提高企业应对冲击的韧性。机制检验进一步证实，保障供应链运营效率、稳定市场预期和促进创新产出分别是三种多元化战略提高企业韧性的关键渠道。异质性分析明确了多元化战略发挥作用的边界条件：供应链多元化是企业（尤其是非国有企业）抵御冲击的重要保障；市场多元化对低数字化转型企业和高行业竞争度企业更具效果；技术多元化乃至全方位战略布局则是高出口依赖度企业与技术密集型企业要具备的。文章创新性地从多元化战略应对和韧性的视角拓展了实体清单经济效应的相关研究，为中国企业在复杂地缘政治环境下平衡安全与效率、实现高质量发展提供了经验证据与决策参考。
Abstract：Against the backdrop of intensifying great power competition and technological rivalry, how to effectively withstand technological blockades-epitomized by the " Entity List"-and forge the resilience of Chinese enterprises has emerged as a critical imperative. Utilizing the U. S.Department of Commerce′s Entity List and the CSMAR Related-Party Transaction Database, this study identifies affected Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from2018 to2023. Employing quarterly data for the first time within the context of the Entity List policy, it empirically tests whether and how three diversification strategies-supply chain diversification, market diversification, and technological R&D diversification-help Chinese firms cope with the shock. The findings indicate that the Entity List policy exerts a significant negative shock, disrupting the normal operations of enterprises. However, diversification strategies significantly enhancing corporate resilience against such external impacts. Mechanism analysis further confirms that ensuring supply chain operational efficiency, stabilizing market expectations, and fostering innovation output are the key channels through which the three diversification strategies enhance corporate resilience, respectively. Heterogeneity analysis clarifies the boundary conditions for the effectiveness of these strategies: supply chain diversification serves as a critical safeguard against shocks, particularly for non-state-owned enterprises; market diversification proves more effective for firms with low levels of digital transformation or those operating in highly competitive industries; while technological diversification, and even a comprehensive strategic layout, is essential for technology-intensive enterprises and those with high export dependence. This study innovatively expands research on the economic effects of the Entity List from the perspectives of resilience and diversification strategies, providing empirical evidence and decision-making references for Chinese enterprises to balance security with efficiency and achieve high-quality development amidst a complex geopolitical environment.
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(1)之所以考虑集团成员，是因为实体清单对单个企业的影响可能会扩散到整个集团；但反之则不同，当识别的某一实体为集团时，这并不意味着需要将集团下属上市企业全部纳入实验组，因为实体清单会详细列出具体需要管制的分支机构或企业名称。
(1)限于篇幅，描述性统计结果留存备索。
(1)限于篇幅，各变量平衡性检验结果、标准化偏差图示、PSM-DID回归结果、市场和技术多元化事前趋势检验与安慰剂检验结果留存备索。
(1)限于篇幅，具体估计结果与解释留存备索。
(1)限于篇幅，具体估计结果留存备索。
(1)数据来源：美国商务部工业与安全局官网，https：//media. bis. gov/regulations/ear/744。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2026.03.002
中图分类号:F272;F752.6
引用信息:
[1]蒋殿春,张翩.实体清单、多元化战略与企业韧性[J].世界经济研究,2026,No.385(03):33-49+135-136.DOI:10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2026.03.002.
基金信息:
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“数字型跨国公司的理论和政策研究”(项目编号:22JJD790039);教育部哲学社科实验室专项基金项目“中美科技博弈及中国高科技产业技术发展”(项目编号:H0122706)的阶段性成果
2026-03-16
2026-03-16