世界经济研究

文章基于RTA规则网络与FDI网络数据，运用TERGM模型与STERGM模型，系统考察了RTA规则网络深化对全球FDI网络的结构性影响。研究发现:第一，投资国在规则网络中的中心地位通过信息扩散和技术溢出提升其资本输出能力，从而推动FDI输出网络形成;而东道国的规则网络嵌入则因制度复杂性提升与资本竞争加剧抑制其吸引FDI，对FDI输入网络的促进作用相对有限。同时，两国在规则网络中的地位差距越大，双边FDI关系建立的概率越低。第二，动态分析表明，RTA规则网络在关系形成阶段显著促进新投资联系建立，在关系存续阶段对FDI输出关系具有稳定作用，但可能削弱FDI输入关系稳定性，体现出一定的投资转移效应。第三，异质性分析表明，上述效应在国别组合、投资类型及条款维度上存在明显差异，其中在发达国家之间投资、独资、水平型投资以及投资类条款中的作用更为显著。进一步的时间异质性分析表明，RTA规则网络对全球FDI网络的影响呈现“中心驱动-边际递减-相似性主导”的阶段性特征。

Drawing on global data on RTA rule network and FDI network,this study employs TERGM and STERGM models to systematically examine how the deepening of RTA rule network reshapes the structural properties of the global FDI network. The findings are as follows. First,a country's centrality in the RTA rule network significantly strengthens its capacity for capital outflows by facilitating information diffusion and technological spillovers,thereby promoting the formation of the FDI outward network. In contrast,greater embedding of host countries in the rule network tends to weaken their ability to attract FDI due to increased institutional complexity and intensified capital competition,resulting in a relatively limited effect on the expansion of the FDI inward network. Moreover,a larger disparity in the positions of the home and host countries within the rule network reduces the likelihood of establishing bilateral FDI ties. Second,dynamic analysis reveals that the deepening of the RTA rule network significantly promotes the creation of new investment ties in the formation stage of FDI relationships. However,during the persistence stage,it stabilizes existing outward FDI ties while potentially weakening the stability of inward FDI ties,indicating a certain degree of investment diversion. Third,heterogeneity analysis shows that these effects vary across country pairs,investment types,and rule provisions. The impacts are particularly pronounced for investment among developed economies,wholly owned investment,horizontal FDI,and investment-related provisions. The temporal evolution of these effects follows a trajectory characterized by a transition from " centralitydriven" to " diminishing marginal effects",and eventually to " similarity-dominated" dynamics.