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价值链分工的“全球性”和“系统性”特征决定了任何生产环节都直接或间接地涉及“内”“外”的双重循环维度。新发展格局下，制造业价值链攀升不仅依赖内循环在外循环中的经济体量，更强调内外循环的畅通和协同作用。文章基于OECD-ICIO与IRIOT的匹配数据，结合复杂网络方法创新性构建和测度了2002—2017年中国30个省份14个细分制造业的国内和国际循环强度指数，实证检验了“双循环”对制造业价值链攀升的独立与协同机制，并结合分样本数据与2007—2021年ADB-MRIO产业面板数据进行了稳健性检验。结果表明：“双循环”对制造业价值链攀升的作用受内、外循环协同与耦合关系的交互影响；本土市场规模作为经济循环的体量表征，对价值链攀升起基础作用，发挥内循环效应的关键是提升国内市场统一度，而发挥外循环效应的关键在于提高国际贸易自由度；内外循环“通畅”对价值链攀升的意义基于国内和国际分工的深化效应实现，这是因为分工深化有助于在提升产出效率的同时降低价值链分工产生的各种“流转”成本；“双循环”的分工深化机制还存在显著的样本异质性和空间效应。文章研究为“双循环”新发展格局下中国制造业的价值链攀升提供了新的思路逻辑。
Abstract：The "global" and "systematic" characteristics of the value chain division of labor mean that any production link directly or indirectly involves a dual circulation dimension of "internal" and "external". Under the new development pattern, the ascent of the manufacturing value chain not only relies on the economic volume of internal circulation and external circulation, but also emphasizes the smoothness and synergy of internal and external circulation. This article is based on the matching data of OECD-ICIO and IRIOT, and innovatively constructs and measures the domestic and international circulation intensity indices for14segmented manufacturing industries across 30 provinces in China from2002to2017using complex network methods. It empirically tests the independent and collaborative mechanisms of the "dual circulation" on the climbing of the manufacturing value chain, and conducts robustness tests using sub sample data and ADB-MRIO industry panel data from2007to2021. The results indicate that the role of " dual circulation" in the ascent of the manufacturing value chain is influenced by the interaction between the synergy and coupling of internal and external circulation. The scale of the local market, as a representation of the size of the economic cycle,plays a fundamental role in climbing the value chain. The key to exerting the internal circulation effect is to enhance the unity of the domestic market, while the key to exerting the external circulation effect is to improve the degree of international trade freedom. The significance of " smooth" internal and external circulation for the ascent of the value chain is based on the deepening effect of domestic and international division of labor, because deepening division of labor helps to reduce various "circulation" costs generated by value chain division of labor while improving output efficiency. In addition, the deepening mechanism of division of labor in the "dual cycle" also exhibits significant sample heterogeneity and spatial effects. This article provides new ideas and logic for the value chain ascent of China′s manufacturing industry under the new development pattern of " dual circulation".
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(1)因数据不全,本文剔除中国香港、澳门、台湾和西藏后剩余30个省级行政区。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.05.006
中图分类号:F424
引用信息:
[1]刘梦,黎峰.新发展格局下的价值链攀升初探：理论与证据[J].世界经济研究,2025,No.375(05):3-22+135.DOI:10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.05.006.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金青年项目“制度型开放提升制造业价值链韧性的机理、效应与政策优化研究”(项目编号：24CJL014); 江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“新发展格局下重塑江苏贸易竞争新优势的路径与对策研究”(项目编号：23EYC018)的阶段性成果