世界经济研究

新质生产力是新时期中国经济高质量发展的重要着力点，当前，如何驱动新质生产力提升已成为学术界关注的焦点话题。文章从生产发展型政府债务的视角出发，将“四万亿”刺激政策作为一项准自然实验，采用城市面板数据来考察生产发展型政府债务对城市新质生产力的影响。研究发现，具有生产发展型用途的政府债务显著提升城市全要素生产率和新质生产力，并且二者之间呈“倒U形”关系，作用机制在于基础设施建设效应、科技投入支持效应和人力资本溢出效应，但不包含房价效应。异质性分析表明，生产发展型政府债务对城市全要素生产率和新质生产力的提升作用在东部地区、大规模城市和市场化程度高的地区更显著。此外，以基建投资用途为主的城投债和地方专项债显著提升了城市全要素生产率和新质生产力，但以借新还旧、棚户区改造和保障房建设以及补充运营资金为主要用途的城投债和地方一般债券则难以提升城市全要素生产率和新质生产力。研究表明，中央政府在化解地方隐性债务风险时，应考虑不同债务资金的用途以及不同城市的发展基础、规模和市场化程度，并要及时调整解决方案。文章对于深刻认识地方债与新质生产力之间的关系具有一定的理论和实践意义。

New quality productivity is an important focus of China's high-quality economic development in the new era. Currently,how to drive the improvement of new quality productivity has become a hot topic of academic concern. Starting from the perspective of production development oriented government debt,this paper takes the " four trillion yuan" stimulus policy as a quasi natural experiment and uses urban panel data to examine the impact of production development oriented government debt on urban new quality productivity. This study found that government debt with productive development purpose significantly enhances urban total factor productivity and new quality productivity,and this lifting effect exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. The mechanism lies in infrastructure construction effect,technology investment support effect,and human capital spillover effect,but not including housing price effect. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect of production development oriented government debt on urban total factor productivity and new quality productivity is more significant in eastern regions,large-scale cities,and cities with high marketization level. In addition,urban investment bonds mainly focus on infrastructure investment,and local special bonds can effectively promote the improvement of urban total factor productivity and new quality productivity,but urban investment bonds are used for borrowing new to repay old and constructing affordable housing and supplementary working capital,and local general bonds are difficult to promote the improvement of urban total factor productivity and new quality productivity. When resolving hidden debt risk in local area,the government should consider the use of different debt fund,as well as the development foundation,scale,and marketization level of different cities,and adjust solution in a timely manner. This study has certain theoretical and practical significance for profound understanding of the relationship between local debt and new quality productivity.