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文章基于2000年、2007—2021年全球62个国家和地区35个行业层面的数据分析了汇率波动是否以及如何对全球价值链韧性(安全性和稳定性)产生影响。研究发现：(1)在汇率波动幅度上升时期，全球价值链韧性不断下降，二者表现出相反的时间变动趋势。(2)汇率波动幅度上升会引起进出口贸易稳定性、外国直接投资水平以及对外直接投资水平下降，导致全球价值链韧性下降。(3)在升贬值期间，~((1))汇率波动对全球价值链韧性的影响同向，但升值时期的汇率波动降低全球价值链韧性的边际影响更为明显。(4)经济发展水平越高、贸易开放程度越高以及实行相对固定汇率制度的经济体，全球价值链韧性受汇率波动的影响相对更小。(5)全球各国央行能够通过外汇干预的手段有效缓解汇率波动对全球价值链韧性的负向影响。在稳供应链的基础上，文章从汇率波动的视角讨论了稳住或提升全球价值链位置，为通过稳汇率来促进外贸稳链强链提供了证据。
Abstract：This paper analyzes whether and how exchange rate volatility impacts global value chain resilience( security and stability) based on data from 35 industry sectors across 62 countries and regions worldwide for the years 2000 and 2007-2021. The study found that( 1) During periods of rising exchange rate volatility,GVC resilience has been declining,with exchange rate volatility and GVC resilience showing opposite time-varying trends.( 2) Rising exchange rate volatility can cause a decline in the stability of import and export trade,the level of foreign direct investment and the level of outward foreign direct investment,leading to a decline in the resilience of global value chains.( 3) Exchange rate volatility affects GVC resilience in the same direction during periods of appreciation and depreciation,but the marginal effect of exchange rate volatility in periods of appreciation in reducing GVC resilience is more pronounced.( 4) Economies with higher levels of economic development,greater trade openness,and relatively fixed exchange rate regimes are relatively less vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations in the resilience of global value chains.( 5) Central banks around the world are able to effectively mitigate the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on the resilience of GVCs through the means of foreign exchange intervention. On the basis of stabilizing the supply chain,this paper discusses stabilizing or enhancing the position of GVCs from the perspective of exchange rate volatility,providing evidence for promoting steady foreign trade as well as stable and strong chains through stabilizing the exchange rate.
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① 本文中的升值、贬值均指本币。
(1)限于篇幅,主要变量描述性统计表留存备索。
(2)限于篇幅,基准估计结果中控制变量的估计结果未完全展示,留存备索。下文同。
(3)限于篇幅,内生性检验结果留存备索。
(4)限于篇幅,稳健性检验结果留存备索。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.12.009
中图分类号:F113;F831.6
引用信息:
[1]朱超,张曦元,徐龙强.汇率波动如何影响全球价值链韧性?[J].世界经济研究,2025,No.382(12):58-72+133.DOI:10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.12.009.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“汇率对于全球价值链的影响研究”(项目编号：72373102)、国家自然科学基金青年项目“人口老龄化下的偏好调整与资产价格研究”(项目编号：72103145)的阶段性研究成果