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文章沿用已有分析框架，对2024年全球74个经济体数字贸易促进指数的得分和排名进行分析。2024年，发达经济体的数字贸易发展综合环境仍然保持相对竞争优势，但排名次序出现一定调整；新兴经济体的表现分化明显，塞内加尔、格鲁吉亚、沙特阿拉伯、埃及、印度和中国等经济体进步最为明显，成为2024年全球数字贸易发展的新亮点。文章同时分析了人工智能对全球数字贸易的促进作用，其不仅带来跨境贸易成本的下降，还通过降低贸易壁垒和催生新服务模式，进而重塑全球贸易格局，并驱动全球数字贸易规则的创新与调整。随着全球数字基础设施建设的持续完善及各国数字监管框架的逐步清晰，数字贸易仍将继续保持快速增长；若全球数字鸿沟能持续弥合，则数字贸易将释放更大的发展潜力。
Abstract：This paper applies an existing analytical framework to analyze the scores and rankings of the Global Enabling Digital Trade Index for74 economies in 2024. The analysis shows that in 2024,developed economies maintained a relative competitive advantage in the overall environment for digital trade development,although their rankings have shifted. Meanwhile,the performance of emerging economies varied significantly,with Senegal,Georgia,Saudi Arabia,Egypt,India,and China showing the most notable progress,becoming new highlights in global digital trade development in 2024. This paper also analyzes the role of artificial intelligence( AI) in promoting global digital trade. AI not only reduces cross-border trade costs but also reshapes the global trade landscape by lowering trade barriers and creating new service models. This,in turn,drives the innovation and adjustment of global digital trade rules. Looking ahead,as global digital infrastructure continues to improve and digital regulatory frameworks become clearer in various countries,digital trade is expected to maintain its rapid growth. If the global digital divide can be continuously narrowed,digital trade will unlock even greater development potential.
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① 括号中数字为该国进出口总额占全世界进出口总额的比例。
(1)本文参考杨碧舟和彭羽(2024)的研究,对RTA数字贸易规则深度进行量化,并将其作为网络中边的权重,具体计算方法备索。加权度数中心度是指与节点直接相连的边的权重之和,是衡量节点网络地位的常见指标。
(2)指标框架和数据来源等详细信息可参考沈玉良等(2021a;2021b)的研究。
(3)TAPED数据库已停止对2022年6月后签署的RTA中的“特定部门国民待遇和/或最惠国待遇”条款进行编码,本文在计算指数时仅考虑已经编码的协定。
(4)沙特阿拉伯个人数据保护法(PDPL)于2023年9月14日正式生效,之后沙特阿拉伯还颁布了《个人数据保护法实施条例》和《个人数据境外传输条例》等配套法规。
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(9)本部分协定数量均为笔者根据TAPED(2024年11月版本)数据库测算而成,下同。
(10)目前有159份RTAs包含数据保护条款,其中59份为硬约束条款。
(11)目前有38份RTAs已纳入禁止以数据本地化作为市场准入条件的条款,但这类承诺通常受一般例外条款约束。
(12)根据测算,目前有114份RTAs含有商业秘密保护条款。
(13)根据测算,目前有13份RTAs通过设立监管沙盒、倡导数据共享与再利用等条款,正面认可“数据共享推动创新”的理念。
(14)本部分协定数量根据TAPED数据库(2024年11月版本)测算而成。
(15)例如,韩国DeepFake换脸案以一张照片即可生成高逼真视频并通过“以贩养造”模式扩散,成为AI重塑网络犯罪形态的典型写照。
(16)https://www.zionmarketresearch.com/report/cross-border-b2c-e-commerce-market-size。
上海社会科学院“全球数字贸易促进指数”研究团队成员徐乾宇和邹家阳也对此文有所贡献。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.10.001
中图分类号:F49;F746.18;TP18
引用信息:
[1]彭羽,杨碧舟.人工智能与数字贸易：全球数字贸易促进指数分析(2024)[J].世界经济研究,2025,No.380(10):3-14+135.DOI:10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.10.001.
基金信息: