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碳排放权交易机制(ETS)作为应对气候变化的重要政策工具，其能否有效推动能源转型是备受关注的重要理论命题。文章从全球视角系统考察ETS对能源转型的影响及其异质性演化特征，在构建纳入研发竞争理论分析框架的基础上，基于1995—2023年151个国家的跨国数据，采用交错双重差分方法对上述命题进行实证检验。研究发现，ETS政策的实施能够有效推动能源转型;机制分析发现，ETS政策通过激励绿色债券融资、提高能源效率以及促进可再生能源技术创新来推动能源转型;异质性分析发现，处于转型初期的国家政策效应最显著，其随相对初始能源结构对应的全球竞争位序呈现先增强后减弱的特征;进一步基于广义随机森林方法发现，政策效应随经济发展水平及化石能源消费量变化呈现非线性演变规律。文章的研究为碳市场的扩张和全球气候治理战略的深化提供政策参考与经验启示。
Abstract：As a policy tool for addressing climate change,the effectiveness of Emissions Trading Schemes(ETS) in driving national energy transitions remains a crucial theoretical proposition attracting widespread attention. Existing literatures primarily focus on localized samples from single countries or specific regions. This study adopts a global perspective to systematically examine the impact of ETS on energy transition and its heterogeneous evolutionary characteristics. Building upon a theoretical framework incorporating R&D competition theory,this study empirically tests the aforementioned proposition using the staggered difference-in-differences approach based on carbon market implementation data across 151 countries over the period of 1995-2023. The results find that:(1) The implementation of the ETS policy effectively promotes national energy transition;(2) Mechanism analysis reveals that the ETS policy drives energy transition by incentivizing green financing,improving energy efficiency,and fostering innovation in renewable energy technologies;(3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy effect is most significant in countries at the initial stage of transition,and it exhibits a trend of first strengthening and then weakening in relation to the global ranking of their relative initial energy structure;(4) Furthermore,employing the Generalized Random Forests method,the study finds that the policy effect presents nonlinear evolutionary patterns with respect to the level of economic development and the consumption of fossil fuels. The findings of this study provide policy references and empirical insights for the expansion of carbon markets and the deepening of global climate governance strategies.
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(1)本研究聚焦于第三次能源转型，重点关注可再生能源导向的能源结构变革。目前，世界范围内正在经历面向可持续发展的第三次能源转型。第三次能源转型的核心是大力推动可再生能源发展，提高可再生能源在一次能源消费和电力结构中的比重，最终实现从化石能源体系向绿色、低碳、可持续的可再生能源体系的根本性转变。与前两次能源转型不同，此次能源转型最初的驱动因素不再是创新而是政策。转型的根本动力不仅源于技术进步和生产力发展，更是为了破解经济增长与日益严峻的环境污染、气候变化和能源安全问题之间的深层矛盾(何建坤，2015)。
(1)需要注意的是，尽管英国自2021年脱欧后已正式退出欧盟ETS并建立了独立的碳交易体系，但鉴于英国在欧盟ETS中的碳市场冲击主要始于2005年，本文仍将2005年设定为英国ETS的实施时间，以反映政策影响的实际起点。列支敦士登(Liechtenstein)于欧盟ETS第二阶段(2008—2012年)正式纳入该体系，但由于数据缺失严重，本文未将该国纳入样本范围。
(2)根据数据的可得性原则，剔除了关键变量数据存在一定缺失或异常值的样本，最终确定了151个国家作为研究对象。该样本广泛涵盖了不同经济发展水平和多元化能源结构特征的经济体，样本不包含地区。
(1)限于篇幅，替换被解释变量、培根分解系数及权重表、阿森费尔特沉降检验、安慰剂检验与控制变量滞后一期、双重机器学习具体结果留存备索。
(1)一种方法是在基准回归模型中引入被解释变量前2年的趋势;另一种方法是在基准回归模型中引入一个表示观测时间是否处于事前1~2年的虚拟变量，当时间属于事前1~2年时为1，否则为0。
(1)限于篇幅，基于可再生能源类型的异质性回归结果留存备索。
(1)限于篇幅，仅对图4(a)和(b)展开说明，留存备索。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2026.02.004
中图分类号:F831.5;X196
引用信息:
[1]马丽梅,孙雪琳.碳定价与能源转型：基于国际碳市场的经验证据[J].世界经济研究,2026,No.384(02):3-16+31+135.DOI:10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2026.02.004.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目“技术创新视角下能源转型的驱动机制与政策优化”(项目编号:24FJYB040)的阶段性成果