世界经济研究

提升中国在全球生产网络的中心地位有助于增强中国在国际分工中的话语权、主动权与产业链掌控能力，对保障产业链供应链安全、维护多元稳定的国际经济格局和经贸关系至关重要。文章基于亚洲开发银行的多区域投入产出数据库(ADB-MRIO)，运用复杂网络方法构建并刻画中国在全球生产网络中的地位，并借助FactSet Revere全球供应链数据库，从扩张、韧性和效率三个视角，运用供应链新增率、断链率和转换率测度中国产业链供应链安全水平，进而探究全球生产网络中心地位对中国产业链供应链安全的影响。研究结果表明:第一，全球生产网络中心地位提升显著提高了中国供应链新增率和转换率，同时明显抑制了供应链的断链率，从而提升了中国产业链供应链安全水平;第二，此效应对于贸易政策不确定性感知较低的企业、市场竞争程度高的企业、国有企业以及战略性行业等样本更为显著;第三，全球生产网络中心地位通过优势嵌入效应、市场拓展效应和技术创新效应提升中国产业链供应链安全;第四，在供应链不确定性冲击下，中国企业供应链布局的主要调整方向是回流国内，以增强本国供应链自主可控能力来提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。文章不仅为打造自主可控的产业链供应链、建立产业链供应链安全风险评估和应对机制、健全提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度等提供了新思路，也为提高中国在全球生产网络的中心地位、增强中国的全球经济治理话语权、推动全球经济治理向更公平更包容方向发展提供了重要证据和启示。

Enhancing China's centrality in global production networks contributes to strengthening its bargaining power and agency within the international division of labor,as well as improving its capacity to exert control over global industrial and supply chains. This is critical not only for the security of China's industrial and supply chains but also for the stability and diversification of the international economic order and trade relations. Drawing on the Asian Development Bank's(ADB) multi-regional input-output data from 2007 to 2023,this paper employs complex network methods to construct and characterize China's position in the global production network. Moreover,using the FactSet Revere Global Supply Chain Database,the study systematically evaluates the security level of China's industrial supply chain from the perspectives of expansion,resilience,and efficiency by selecting three core indicators: supply chain expansion rate,disruption rate,and switching rate. The empirical results highlight four key findings. Firstly,greater centrality in the global production network significantly increases China's supply chain expansion and switching rates,while substantially reducing disruption rates,thereby enhancing the overall security of China's cross-border supply chains. Secondly,these effects are particularly pronounced among firms with lower perceptions of trade policy uncertainty,those operating in highly competitive markets,state-owned enterprises,and firms in non-critical industries.Thirdly,global production network centrality affects the security of China' s industrial and supply chains through mechanisms of advantageous embeddedness,market expansion,and technological innovation. Fourthly,in response to supply chain uncertainties,Chinese firms primarily adjust by reshoring supply chain activities to the domestic market,thereby strengthening autonomy,resilience,and security of national supply chains. This study offers new insights and practical approaches for building autonomous and controllable industrial and supply chains,establishing mechanisms for risk assessment and mitigation,and improving institutional arrangements to enhance supply chain resilience and security. In addition,it provides empirical evidence for reinforcing China's central position in global production networks,expanding its influence in global economic governance,and promoting a more equitable and inclusive international economic order.