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逆全球化背景下，温室气体排放与地缘政治冲突相互作用使得全球供应链风险进一步复杂化。文章研究了温室气体排放在地缘政治冲突背景下，如何影响中国面临的全球供应链风险。理论研究表明，如果国际间气候合作不能顺利推进，温室气体排放与地缘政治冲突会相互加强，进而加剧全球供应链风险，主要表现为能源和资源价格波动、国际运输中断、贸易限制、全球供应链本土化和多元化以及全球绿色供应链重构等。文章基于1995—2020年OECD世界投入产出表数据并利用潜因子法、广义随机森林和双重纠偏Lasso法研究发现，温室气体排放与地缘政治冲突相互作用会增加中国供给侧和需求侧的全球供应链风险，特别是来自美国等国家的全球供应链风险较为突出，而且还会引发美国加大对外资的审查力度。
Abstract：Under the background of anti-globalization, the interaction between greenhouse gas emissions and geopolitical conflicts further complicates global supply chain risks. This article investigates how greenhouse gas emissions affect the global supply chain risks faced by China in the context of geopolitical conflicts. Theoretical research has shown that if international climate cooperation cannot proceed smoothly,greenhouse gas emissions and geopolitical conflicts will mutually reinforce each other, thereby exacerbating global supply chain risks.These risks are mainly manifested as fluctuations in energy and resource prices, international transportation disruptions, trade restrictions,global supply chain localization and diversification, and global green supply chains restructuring. Based on data from the OECD World Input Output Table from1995to2020, and using the latent factor method, generalized random forest, and double correction Lasso method,the study finds that the interaction between greenhouse gas emissions and geopolitical conflicts increases global supply chain risks on both the supply and demand sides of China. This effect is particularly pronounced with countries such as the United States, and it also triggers increased scrutiny of foreign investment by the United States.
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(1)来源于福布斯(Forbes)网站。
(2)本文利用Baldwin等(2022)的原理测算全球供应链风险,具体测算中国来自其他经济体(行业)的风险或其他经济体来自中国的风险时需要对测算公式进行调整。
(3)小提琴图的高度为个体处理效应的大小,宽度为个体处理效应在该值上的分布。
(4)财新网.中美达成增加航班共识国际航线修复能否提速.2023-6-21.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.06.001
中图分类号:F274;X51
引用信息:
[1]杨飞.温室气体排放与全球供应链风险：基于机器学习方法的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2025,No.376(06):21-35+135.DOI:10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2025.06.001.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目“技术竞争视角下超大规模市场推动产业数字化转型发展：内在机制与政策优化”(项目批准号：72473072); 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金“产业智能化促进共同富裕的理论机制与政策选择研究”(批准号：22YJA790074)的阶段性成果