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在全球经济动荡与外部需求波动的背景下，研究外部需求如何影响企业创新，对推动产业链升级和实现科技自立自强具有重要意义。文章通过构建静态垄断竞争模型，从理论上梳理外部需求与企业创新之间的作用路径，并基于中国海关-工业企业数据、专利数据以及CEPII-BACI数据库进行了实证检验。研究发现，外部需求的正向冲击显著提升了企业的专利申请数量。作用路径分析表明，外部需求可通过知识溢出和市场规模效应促进企业创新，但市场竞争会对其产生抑制作用;随着企业技术能力增强，其对来自外部知识溢出的依赖程度相对降低，市场竞争转而发挥促进作用，同时，市场规模效应的积极影响持续增强。异质性分析表明，接近行业技术前沿、地理位置邻近港口以及处于中高技术行业的企业，其创新行为对外部需求变化更为敏感，专利增长更为明显。文章为理解外部市场需求稳定对企业创新的重要性提供了新的经验证据。
Abstract：In the context of global economic turbulence and fluctuations in external demand,studying how external demand affects enterprise innovation is of great significance for promoting industrial chain upgrading and achieving technological self-reliance. This paper constructs a static monopolistic competition model to theoretically analyze the pathways through which external demand influences enterprise innovation,and conducts empirical testing based on Chinese customs-industrial enterprise data,patent data,and the CEPII-BACI database. The study finds that positive shocks to external demand significantly increase the number of patent applications by enterprises. The analysis of the impact pathways shows that external demand can promote enterprise innovation through knowledge spillovers and market size effects,but market competition has a suppressive effect. As enterprises' technological capabilities increase,their dependence on external knowledge spillovers decreases,market competition shifts to a facilitating role,and the positive impact of market size effects continues to strengthen. Heterogeneity analysis shows that enterprises close to the industry's technological frontier,located near ports,and in medium-high technology industries are more sensitive to changes in external demand,and their patent growth is more significant. This paper provides new empirical evidence for understanding the importance of stable external market demand for enterprise innovation.
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(1)在2002年以前，中国海关采用的商品分类标准为HS96版本，在2002—2006年期间采用的分类标准为HS02版本，在2007—2011年期间采用的分类标准为HS07版本，在2012—2014年期间采用的分类标准为HS12。各版本的商品分类统一标准对应表来源于联合国统计署:https://unstats. un. org/unsd/trade/classifications/correspondence-tables. asp。
(2)本文选取2000—2014年样本，一方面，覆盖中国加入WTO后外需快速扩张及多轮贸易制度与商品分类变迁，且可与HS96版本实现一致对接，便于构建产品级外需冲击;另一方面，该时间窗具有足够时间跨度以识别外需对企业创新的传播。虽然样本止于2014年，但所得结论对当前“稳外需、补强产业链韧性与推进科技自立自强”的政策制定具有直接启示。
(3)规模以上要求企业每年的主营业务收入(即销售额)在500万元及以上，2011年该标准改为2000万元及以上。
(4)这部分企业很多是记录错误，如样本中有成立时间超过300年的企业，1949年前成立的观测值仅占全部观测值数的0. 47%。
(1)LIU等(2021)的研究表明，未加权平均关税从2001年的15. 3%降至2004年的12. 3%，而同期加权平均关税则从9. 1%降至6. 4%，并且在行业之间表现出极大的差异。
(2)2019年末安徽省全境才正式被纳入长三角。
(1)尽管该变量不能完全等同于知识溢出过程，但它反映了外部市场的技术复杂度与知识密集度，为企业通过出口获取技术外溢提供了基础条件。此外，考虑到企业不只向一个地区出口，我们根据企业对不同地区出口额的权重对出口地发明专利数量进行加权处理，对市场竞争的代理变量采用同样的处理方式。
(1)该距离度量不随时间变化。
(2)距离数据来自谷歌地图，港口定义为交通部发布的《全国沿海港口布局规划》中的1级主要港口。
基本信息:
DOI：10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2026.02.008
中图分类号:F273.1
引用信息:
[1]方顺超,金晟男,朱平芳.外部需求影响中国企业创新的理论机制与实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2026,No.384(02):120-134+137.DOI:10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2026.02.008.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字经济促进现代化产业体系建设的测度研究”(项目编号:23BTJ015)的阶段性成果