李正,王宏淼

• 1:中国社会科学院大学经济学院
• 2:中国社会科学院经济研究所

摘要(Abstract)：

文章借助LW模型，立足于开放环境估算中国及主要发达经济体的自然利率水平，研究发现：主要发达经济体自然利率持续下行，压缩宏观政策空间，亟需构建新的宏观管理范式；中国自2012年以来自然利率持续下行，由于自然利率定价依赖于外循环，宏观管理仍具有“小国经济”特点，所面临的困境更显复杂和严峻。外向型利率定价不仅快速压缩中国的财政政策空间，同时制约货币政策的发挥。而拥有全球储备货币地位的美国与欧元区，内向型利率定价则有助于扩充其宏观政策空间。在潜在增速面临趋势性下滑风险的环境下，把握当前窗口期加快宏观管理范式的转型极为紧要，最现实的路径仍是稳慎推进人民币国际化，为外向型利率定价扭转为内向型利率定价提供前置环境，使资金循环同实体经济循环相谐。

关键词(KeyWords)： 自然利率;外向型利率定价;宏观政策空间;人民币国际化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于中国实践的经济增长理论创新研究”(项目编号:22&ZD053);国家社会科学基金项目“功能财政与国家治理现代化研究”(项目编号:21BJY068)

作者(Author): 李正,王宏淼

DOI: 10.13516/j.cnki.wes.2023.09.008

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• (1)HUANG和GUO(2006)发现随着国际资本市场一体化加速,不同货币资产之间的可替代性会提高。 (2)基于十年期国债市场较长的交易历史和庞大的市场规模,我们认为十年期国债收益率是最适合本研究的市场利率指标。虽然十年期国债利率不是短期利率,但样本期内稳定的期限溢价保证了基于十年期国债收益率的估算结果对刻画自然利率的运动趋势仍是恰当的。 (3)2016年8月26日,耶伦在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上关于主题为“美联储的货币政策工具:过去、现在和未来”的讲话。 (4)该估算结果由纽约联邦储备银行继续更新至2020年第二季度并公布于官网。 (1)根据BIS数据，美联储于2008年12月至2015年11月、2020年3月至2022年3月将政策利率维持在0%~0. 25%，欧洲央行于2016年3月至2022 年6月将政策利率维持在0%，英国于2016年8月至2017年11月、2020年3月至2022年1月将政策利率维持在0. 25%及以下，零利率下限约束明显收紧。